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Third-Year WR Breakout: Fact or Fluke? One of the concepts that gets bounced around in Fantasy Football is the familiar “Third-Year WR Breakout” theory: The concept that wide receivers tend to go through a learning curve in the NFL and reach their fullest scoring potential in their third year, often with a huge jump in scoring. This idea has been quoted and debated on Fantasy Football discussion boards for years, and some fans continue cling to it as gospel truth, while others dismiss it as mere myth. But most fans probably put it somewhere in-between: It’s probably not always true, but it might still hold enough weight to sway their choice of receivers in a draft or a trade. After all, it sounds plausible, doesn’t it? Actually, all we have to do is do a quick look at some scoring numbers from the Zealots Fantasy Football leagues since 2003 to see that the theory sure might be true:
Ah-ha! There you go! Just look at the general improvement Cotchery, Berrian, and Curtis each made in their first three years in the league, and how they all exploded in scoring in year three. They are all classic examples of the 3rd year breakout theory that must prove the rule.
But then, what about these guys?
Uhhhhh… Maybe these receivers are the ones that are the flukes. After all, every rule always has its exceptions. There could be injuries; or coaching changes; or other receivers drafted or signed as free agents that end up affecting a team’s depth chart; or even trades involving the receiver himself, like in Burleson’s case, right? Besides, Burleson did have a “breakout” – it just came a year early. But these special cases don’t necessarily mean that the general rule isn’t still true… Or does it??? Since we can obviously find individual WRs that seem to both prove and disprove the theory, the only way to find out for sure if it is a valid theory is to look at all the data from 2003 to 2006. Then we can see if there is indeed a general improvement in scoring across all receivers from their second to third year. Plus while we’re at it, we can compare any WR trend with the scoring trends for the other positions too. There could just be a general three-year scoring increase among all players in the NFL. Or maybe some other “breakout” trends might hold, even if the 3rd-year WR one doesn’t. A History of WRs Taking all of the Zealots scoring records from 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006, we can calculate changes in scoring for players from year to year and then limit our sample to players who had non-zero scoring in both years of interest. We can also filter these records down by experience and group them: From their rookie year to their 2nd year (Yrs 1 – 2); their 2nd year to their 3rd year (Yrs 2 – 3); and their 3rd year to their 4th year (Yrs 3 – 4). Finally, we can group each of these again by position, and analyze the overall results. Since we started talking about the Wide Receivers, let’s go ahead and start with a look at their overall numbers after we do all the data grouping and analysis: This table gives summarized results for all wide receivers that had non-zero scoring in both years of interest since Zealots began in 2003. For example, the first row breaks it down to all WRs who scored something other than zero in both their rookie and 2nd years -- there have been 67 of them in Zealots history. The average change in scoring for these 67 WRs was a 10.61 point increase in their 2nd year over their 1st year. Breaking it down even further, we see that 22 of the 67 (or 32.8%) had no change, or actually decreased in scoring in their second year, while 45 of them (67.2%) had at least some increase. So we can estimate that WRs have roughly a 2:1 chance to improve their scoring in their second year from what they scored in their first year, at least by some. So did any WR have “breakouts” in their second year when compared to their first year? If we go back to the examples we used to prove… er, “suggest”, that there may be a general 3rd-year breakout rule, we see that each of the three players scored 69 – 92 points more in their “breakout” year. So let’s be generous and define a “breakout” as “at least a 50 point increase”. We can then see in the table above that 14 of the 67 WRs “broke out” in their second year – 20.9% of WRs scored at least 50 points more in their 2nd year than they did in their rookie year (If we push the breakout line up to 75 points, it lowers the number of WRs who make the “breakout” cut down to only 4 of the 67 – a mere 6.0%). Next, let’s look at the key year in the “3rd-year Theory”. Among the 71 WRs who scored something in both their 2nd and 3rd years, the average change in scoring was an increase of 12.50 points. Hmmm – a higher number of WRs and a higher scoring average than was the case in the 1st-to-2nd year WRs. Maybe the 3rd-year breakout theory might have some validity. Or not… When we look at the actual number of WRs who improved in their scoring, we see that it was the same number – 45 – as was the case for the 2nd year WRs, but now the percentage is only 63.4%. So while the chance of a 3rd-year increase in scoring for a WR is still near 2:1, it is actually slightly less than for a 2nd-year increase. And the number of 3rd year WRs who make our “breakout” cut-off line of a 50 point increase or better is only 11 – down to 15.5%. So clearly there’s no evidence of a consistent third-year “breakout” rule among WRs. Some receivers did score significantly higher in their third year, but the general rule is that there is a 17-to-3 chance that a given WR won’t have a large enough improvement in their third year to be considered a breakout. The overall trend of improvement even shows that there is actually a slightly higher chance of improvement in a WR’s second year, not their third. Just to compare, let’s look at the numbers for the 3rd-to-4th year changes in scoring for the WRs. As with the previous years, examples exist that could be a “breakout” in a WR’s fourth year (6 of them, or 8.7%), but the overall average actually reveals a typical decrease in scoring in the fourth year. From 69 WRs who had non-zero scoring in both their 3rd and 4th years in Zealots history, the average change in scoring was -5.85 points, and over half (39, or 56.5%) will not score as much in their 4th year as they did in their 3rd. WR Overall Trends So to put it all together, while individual receivers can have “breakout” seasons in any year, the general trend across all WRs is a 67% chance of improvement in their second year, a 63% chance of improvement in their third year, and then a 57% chance of decline in their fourth year. That general 63% chance of some improvement in a WR’s third year combined with the 15.5% of third-year receivers who do have a significant increase in scoring is enough to perpetuate the myth of the “third-year WR breakout”, but the overall data reveals that it is not a consistent fact. And if we were forced to pick a typical “breakout” year for WRs, we’d instead pick the 2nd year, where there is a slightly higher chance of at least some increase (67.2% to 63.4%) and a higher percentage of WRs who improve by at least 50 points (20.9% vs 15.5% in the 3rd year). OK – so there’s not really an overall 3rd year “breakout” that consistently occurs among WRs, although there is a general trend of improvement in both their second and third years in the league. But is that unique to WRs? If so, it might help account for the breakout theory. So let’s expand our analysis to look at the other positions – then we can see if the WR pattern of scoring change through their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th years is unique to receivers or a general feature of all new NFL players in their first four years in the league. We’ll start with the QBs: The Other Positions Well, what do you know? Pretty consistent with the receivers – a general trend of improvement in both the second and third years, (86.7% score more in year two and 63.2% do so in year three), and then a decrease in the fourth (52.6% decline). Also, like the WRs, the chance for at least some increase in the 2nd year is larger than there is in the third, and for QBs it’s much higher (86.7% to 63.2%). Next, let’s check out the RBs: The trend holds again: A general chance of improvement in the 2nd and 3rd years (67.9% and 51.5%), and then if not a strong decrease, then at least a flat line in the 4th year: A 50-50 chance of a decrease, with an average change in scoring of -0.49 points. Plus, once again, just like the QBs and WRs, there is a noticeably higher chance of improvement in the second year than there is in the third. What about the TEs? Yep: The general trend is improvement in the second year (58.6%), improvement in the third year (58.8%), and then a decline in the fourth (70.6%). For TEs, while there is just a slightly lower chance of improving in the 2nd year than in the 3rd year, it is only 0.2%, and the average point change is still significantly higher in the 2nd year (16.64 pts vs only 5.74 pts in the 3rd year). OK, we’ll even look at the kickers: The trend we’ve been seeing even holds for kickers: Most improve in the second year (75.0%), and then again in the third year (62.5%). The fourth year is one where the majority actually declines in scoring (57.1%). There are not very many kickers in each year (eight at most), so the numbers seem a bit skewed. For example, most kickers improve in the 3rd year (62.5%), but the average point change is a negative number – the three who declined must have really declined compared to the other five. The fourth year reverses this. Four of the seven declined in scoring (57.1%), but the average point change is positive (2.01 pts) – now the three who increased must have done so significantly more than the 4 who declined. But even with only a few data points, kickers still hold the same overall trend: Improve in year two, improve in year three, and then decline in year four. And there is a noticeably greater chance of improvement in year two than in year three (75.0% vs. 62.5%, and a 32.10 average point increase in the second year vs. a -6.25 average decrease in the third year). IDP Trends OK, so what about the defense? Let’s look at the DLs:
Even the defensive side seems to be pretty closely fit the general trend. The DLs were very likely to improve in year two (70.5%), and then improve somewhat in year three (52.1%). But they also showed a tendency to continue improving on into year four (53.2%). However the average point change shows the average change among DLs is less than a point in year 4 (0.58) – they may not have declined overall in year four like the other players we’ve seen so far, but they’ve certainly leveled off. Well, let’s see what the LBs look like: Hmmm… Also a little different, but the LBs still show that tendency to have the largest improvement in year two (67.4% increased in scoring). But with the LBs, the general trend is to have a slightly higher chance of actually decreasing in scoring in both year 3 and year 4 – 53.3% in year three and 54.8% in year four. Yet the average point change for both year 3 and year 4 is positive: 1.64 pts and 2.15 pts. Lastly, let’s review the DBs:
Well, again, the defensive side shows a little quirkiness. Yet that now-familiar chance of improvement in year two is easy to see: 64.4% show an improvement from their rookie year, with an average increase of 14.13 pts. But the DBs match the LB trend of decrease in year three, but with a higher 59.8% chance and a negative average point change to match (-2.37 pts). They then actually show a tendency to slightly rebound in year four – 51.3% improved in year four. Adding It All Together What if we group all the NFL players together? There you go. Now, with 1,469 total players, the trend we saw in the WRs is clearly echoed across all positions: Significant improvement in year two (67.4% with an average point change of 15.47 pts), diminished improvement in year three (50.8% with an average 4.08 pt increase), and a decline in year four (52.7% with an average -0.86 pt decrease). Also, “breakouts” with improvement of 50 or more points can happen at any time, but they are clearly more likely to happen in year two – exactly as we saw in the WR data. Myth – Not Reality So… No evidence that the WRs behave any different than almost any other position. Add in the fact that there was no trend showing a greater likelihood of a “breakout” in a WR’s third year, and you can only conclude the theory is a myth. Sure, some WRs will show a dramatic increase in scoring in their third year -- around three out of twenty according to the averages. But most WRs won’t show any significant improvement in their third year, and the people who promote the “3rd-year breakout” theory are using selected individuals to try and prove a general trend which really isn’t there. Yet... Notice the phrase, "selected individuals." There is certainly evidence that the WRs who do eventually have breakout seasons are not randomly scattered across all possible receivers in the league. There are things that strongly contribute to a WR having a sudden improvement in scoring -- talent and opportunity, primarily. In general, the WRs who get drafted early in the NFL draft and find themselves in situations where they get the opportunities to perform will be the ones who eventually have breakout seasons. But as to when those breakout seasons will come, the norm is Burleson -- not Cotchery, Berrian, or Curtis. In other words, if you really want to find players who are the most likely to dramatically improve, look to the guys who were rookies last year – they’re consistently the players with the highest probability of having a substantial increase in scoring in the upcoming year. But don't just pick 2nd-year receivers wildly – Choose them wisely by using their first-year numbers, draft position, competition from other WRs, QB ability, and their overall opportunities to see the field. Throwing around Fantasy Football catch-phrases like “3rd-year WR Breakout” may make you feel like you’re in tune with FF. But adding research of specific players to knowledge of the real FF trends in scoring will actually give you the best chance for fantasy football success. If you have any comments or questions concerning this article, or if you would like to receive a copy of the spreadsheet used to compile the data used in this article, please feel to contact the writing staff at Zealots Field Press at writingstaff@zealotsfield.com. |
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