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Chris Fries
Czar - Chief Staff Writer
Zealots Screen Name: ChrisLions
Zealots Leagues: Z5, Z28, and Guillotine-Czars
Zealots Member Since: 2003
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2007 Zealots Rookie Draft: Thoughts at Large
Rookie Ramblings and Ruminations
This is one of the best times of the year to
be a Zealot -- In every one of the 48 Zealots leagues, the 2007
rookie draft is either pending, in-progress, or recently completed.
Our members have looked forward to this draft since the end of the
season last December, and rookie-madness is sweeping through all the
realms. Each one of the picks from the six round drafts is at its
peak value, and in most leagues the trading has been active, with
offers and counter-offers flying fast and furious as owners jockey
for draft position.
Once all the 48 leagues have completed their
rookie drafts, we will put together an article showing the overall
average draft positions (ADP), and discuss some of the rookie trends
and variations. But in this article, I'm going to step away a bit
from my usual quantitative analysis, and throw out some qualitative
commentary and gut-level thoughts-at-large on some of the rookies in
the draft:
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In almost every draft so far, RB
Adrian Peterson (MIN) has been taken as the first pick
overall. RBs go early and often in Zealots drafts, and this year
Peterson is at the top of nearly everyone's draft board. Just
like last year when Reggie Bush was the clear favorite in the
draft, Peterson is the obvious choice at #1. About the only
knock anyone might have against Peterson is a question about his
durability - his injury history is pretty well-known.
 But
his talent, size, speed, and the ability to make people miss are
clear to see when you watch him play - he's a threat to score almost
every time he touches the ball. Minnesota is also a great place for
him to end up. Chester Taylor has had his moments and is a
serviceable back, but he used to be #2 behind Jamal Lewis in
Baltimore and is now again destined to become #2 behind Peterson
too. Taylor does give the Vikes the ability to ease Peterson into
his role this year, but have no doubts - Adrian is head and
shoulders above Chester in ability and will eventually show he was
worth the Zealots #1 overall pick.
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Overall, the first four picks have
typically been some combination of Peterson, RB Marshawn
Lynch (BUF), WR Calvin Johnson (DET), and QB
JaMarcus Russell (OAK) in virtually every draft so far. Even
though most Zealots rookie drafts are RB-intensive, adding WR
Johnson and QB Russell makes sense this year. These two are
clearly elite franchise-level talents and are worth their
early-round status. But after these four, it gets a little more
diverse from draft to draft, especially after #5.
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RB Brandon Jackson (GBP) has
been taken at #5 in many drafts, but I think this is a case of
opportunity overcoming talent. Green Bay's RB situation is in
flux with Ahman Green now in Houston - Vernand Morency may only
be starting his third year, but he's already 27 and hasn't been
a clear #1 back, and is definitely not a long-term solution even
if he gets the starting nod. Jackson has also never really been
a featured back -- While he may have been Nebraska's leading
rusher last year, he was stuck in a crowded backfield rotation
that was due to get more competitive. He came out as a junior to
avoid that, and he may not be the guy to carry a full load in
the NFL. If he'd gotten drafted by another NFL team, he would be
much further down on people's draft boards, and the Packers may
have been uncertain enough about Jackson that they also took
RB Deshawn Wynn out of Florida in the 7th round as
insurance.
-
 One
player all over the map in Zealots drafts is RB Brian Leonard
(STL). He's a hard one to pin any solid expectations on
since he's as much of a FB as he is a HB. Described frequently
as a "throwback" football player, he's big, rugged, smart,
tough, and is also known as being a great team player - but
that's hard to translate into fantasy football success. In
reality, he may be as likely to spend his time opening holes for
Steven Jackson as he is running or catching the football
himself, so there is a lot of individual estimation being done
on his value. He's being drafted as early as the first round in
some drafts and as late as the third or fourth round in others.
He will end up either disappointing the early drafters or
pleasantly surprising those who got him late in their draft,
depending on how the Rams use him.
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A good value at RB in the late 1st
round to mid 2nd round has been RB Kenny Irons (CIN).
Another back with an Auburn pedigree, he may not be quite as
good as his predecessors (Ronnie Brown and Cadillac Williams),
but he's tough and a great athlete. He also may be in a better
situation in Cincinnati than many expect: Rudi Johnson has been
a workhorse, but is not a huge break-away threat and shows signs
of wearing down - He ran for over 1,300 yards last year, but it
took 341 carries for only a 3.8 ypc. Plus his longest run all
year was only for 22 yards. Irons is much more of a break-away
threat, can make defenders miss, and will get a fair chance to
show his talent.
-
 A
RB whose situation definitely pushes down his fantasy draft
value despite his talent is RB Antonio Pittman (NOS). He
was ranked as high as the 3rd HB on several pre-draft boards I
saw. But he slid a little farther down the NFL draft than many
people expected, and didn't get taken until the second day.
Getting picked by the Saints hurt his fantasy value even more.
Yet they evidently saw his talent as they traded up to get him
at 4.08.
He'll be buried behind Deuce McAllister and
Reggie Bush initially, but I see him eventually taking Deuce's role.
McAllister is entering his 8th year, has missed significant time
with a blown ACL, and is not getting any younger at 28. Reggie Bush
is a highlight-reel waiting to happen every time he touches the
ball, but he's not going to be the sole back in any offense. So
Pittman may not get much work in the next year or two, but I think
he'll be worth the wait for those who can patiently store him on
their roster for a while. He's typically getting drafted in the late
3rd to mid 4th round in Zealots drafts.
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Calvin Johnson is the clear #1, but
this is a pretty deep draft for WRs. Many have typically gone in
the 1st and 2nd rounds - Robert Meachem (NOS), Dwayne
Bowe (KCC), Ted Ginn (MIA), Dwayne Jarrett (CAR),
Anthony Gonzalez (IND), Sidney Rice (MIN),
Craig Davis (SDC), Steve Smith (NYG), and Jason
Hill (SFO) - and they all have things to like about them.
It's debatable which ones may become fantasy studs and which
ones will fade into oblivion - even Calvin Johnson's not assured
of anything, having been drafted by the Lions where high-ranked
first-round WRs go to wallow in mediocrity (see Charles Rodgers
& Mike Williams). I think Jarrett's been going a little high -
he's slow and over-rated in my opinion, but I can't argue with
how he has produced, especially in key games. I personally like
Davis, Gonzalez, Ginn and Meachem out of the bunch and would be
willing to spend a late first-rounder on those four, but I'd be
happy if any of the nine ended up on my roster with a 2nd round
pick.
-
 One
later-round WR I've also been targeting is Johnnie Lee
Higgens (OAK). This UTEP kid can flat out fly (4.3 pro-day
40) and has a great work ethic.
He has some minor durability concerns (back
issues mainly) and needs some route-running improvement, but with
laser-rocket armed JaMarcus Russell throwing 60 yard bombs, Higgens'
speed may be enough to make some huge plays, and his dedication and
hard work will only lead to continuous improvement. If you get him
in the 4th round or later, you can be pretty happy, I think.
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Another diamond in the mix is WR
Mike Walker (JAC) - He turned a few heads at the combine
with a 4.35 40-yard time, but he's not just a speedy smurf-type.
He also has the size and ability to blend that speed with
possession-type ball-control catches, so he's a threat all over
the field. Another small-school sleeper from Central Florida,
he's a WR prize you'll be pleased to get in the late 4th or 5th
round.
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The #1 TE on everyone's board is
clearly Greg Olsen (CHI) -- He's been going in the late
1st or early 2nd round in most drafts. He is incredibly gifted
and has awesome speed for a TE, but getting drafted by Chicago
at 1.31 is a legitimate instance of where the situation lowers
his fantasy football value. The last time the Bears had a TE
worth anything it was Mike Ditka, and having Grossman as QB is
enough to lower any receiver's potential. I wouldn't mind having
Olsen on my roster, but I wouldn't spend as high of a draft pick
as it would take to get him. TE Zach Miller (OAK) is a
much better value in my opinion since he can be drafted in the
later 3rd or early 4th round. Miller is a little slower than
Olsen, but he has great size and quickness, good hands, and is
also primarily a receiving TE. He and Olsen were clearly the
best two TEs in this draft, and Miller's a steal compared to
Olsen given their relative draft positions and how they'll be
used by their NFL teams.
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In general, the first Individual
Defensive Player (IDP) going the in the drafts seems to be LB
Patrick Willis (SFO), although some leagues have taken DE
Gaines Adams (TBB) or DE Jamaal Anderson (ATL) early,
too. Linebacker has some decent options this year -- Willis and
LBs Paul Posluszny (BUF), Lawrence Timmons (PIT),
and Jon Beason (CAR) are all good choices for early IDPs.
Willis and Posluszny are typically taking a 2nd round pick, and
Timmons and Beason can usually be taken in the third.
-
 If
none of the four top LBs work out, a later-round LB worth
targeting is Justin Durant (JAC).
He can typically be gotten in the late 4th or
5th round, and is great value at that spot. Durant is a bit under
the radar since he's from a small school, but he was a tackling
machine at Hampton and is fast and physical. He lacks ideal size and
needs to work on shedding blocks, but he also has a non-stop motor,
flies all over the field, and is being drafted much lower than his
skills merit.
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Another late-round LB gem might be
Quincy Black (TBB). He has blazing speed but is more of a
project for the Bucs - Durant may see a lot of the field this
season, but Black may take a bit of growth before he regularly
gets playing time. His up-side is pretty high though, and well
worth a 5th round pick in my opinion. Stephen Nicholas (ATL) is
another LB that may pay great dividends with a late 5th or 6th
round pick.
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At DB, only S LaRon Landy (WAS)
is worth a relatively early pick (mid to late 3rd round). Not so
much because there's no other talent to be had at defensive
back, but because there is so much depth at the position. NFL
starters can frequently be found on the free-agent waiver wire,
so it's not worth spending an early-round draft pick on a rookie
DB. Landry is the clear #1 option at safety and will be a
productive starter right from the first day, but other quality
can be found late in the draft or as a free-agent: Reggie
Nelson (JAC), Brandon Merriweather (NEP), Eric
Weddle (SDC), Sabby Piscitelli (TBB), and Aaron
Rouse (GBP) all represent good value if you can get them as
6th rounders, and odds are at least one of them will fall.
Michael Griffin (TEN) is another option, but odds are he
will end up playing CB, cutting down on the number of tackles he
makes, the life-blood of all IDPs. But rookie CBs can also be
good value plays at DB since they tend to get tested often by
opposing QBs and WRs, although they can usually be signed as
inexpensive free agents and so are not worth spending draft
picks on.
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Defensive Lineman is another slot where
not many guys are worth spending early draft picks on. Gaines
Adams and Jamaal Anderson are the two who are probably worth
drafting in the 3rd round or so, which is typically where
they've been going, but I would go any higher than that since
good value can be had with late round picks also. Jarvis Moss
(DEN), Anthony Spencer (DAL), Quentin Moses (OAK),
and Charles Johnson (CAR) are four who can probably be
had in the late 5th or 6th rounds, and represent excellent value
for the picks.
-
 I
also think another DL worth a 6th round pick or a free-agent bid
is Adam Carriker (STL).
He's been as solid as a rock at Nebraska and
is an every-down player who dominates against the run. He may play
at DT in St. Louis which could hurt his fantasy impact. But he's
also strong as a pass rusher, using his strength more than speed or
moves, so he may put as much pressure on the QB from the inside as
he would playing on the end, and may still have good value for an
end-of-draft pick.
-
Lastly, some rookie free agents not
taken in the NFL draft worth considering as 6th round fliers
might be:
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RB Darius Walker (HOU) - Left
Notre Dame as a Junior, but didn't get drafted. A solid runner,
and extremely capable receiver out of the backfield, Walker is
not flashy, but is good enough to make the roster and eventually
push for playing time in a jumbled Texans backfield.
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RB Selvin Young (DEN) - Another
HB/FB blend, Young is worth a gamble simply because he's been
signed by the Broncos. Denver is famous for making no-names into
successful RBs, so anyone in their backfield is worth stashing
on your roster and hoping for magic.
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HB Gary Russell (PIT) - A
Minnesota back who also missed getting his name called, but
later signed with Pittsburgh. Was ranked in the top 15 on some
pre-draft boards and may stick with the Steelers as a long-shot.
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WR Rhema McKnight (NOS) -
Teammate to Darius Walker at Notre Dame, and considered by most
to be a top 25 WR before the draft. Signing with the Saints
gives him an outside chance of being productive in the NFL some
day.
-
WR David Ball (CHI) - It's hard
enough to imagine drafting any Chicago receiver, let alone one
that didn't even get called by the NFL. But this kid has smarts,
and everything you might want in a WR…except speed. But he was
extremely productive at New Hampshire where he broke records
previously held by Jerry Rice. And Rice went on to be an
adequate WR in the NFL, if I remember correctly, so Ball might
be worth a shot just on that fact alone.
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QB Chris Leak (CHI) - Led
Florida to a national championship, but he may not have what it
takes to make it in the NFL - if nothing else, his height of
just under 6' is enough of a concern to warrant caution. But the
depth chart in Chicago is pretty thin, so he may find himself
still on it come September.
Of course, in the end, it's all speculation
and conjecture at this point. The NFL is full of surprises, and for
every high rookie pick success like Peyton Manning, there is a
first-round bust like Ryan Leaf, or an out-of-nowhere star like Tom
Brady. So no-one can say for sure how any draft pick will do once
they start playing for real. But that's part of what makes fantasy
football so much fun - the uncertainty, speculation, and
anticipation. So enjoy it and good drafting!
If you have any comments or questions on this
article, please feel free to contact the writing staff at
writingStaff@zealotsfield.com.
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