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2006 Rookie Review Looking back at the 2006 Zealots Rookie Draft One of the most eagerly anticipated events in the Zealots Fantasy Football leagues is the annual rookie draft, held in each league shortly after the NFL draft takes place. Since Zealots are dynasty leagues, this gives team owners a chance to take part in a draft each year, and it is often the best opportunity for them to build their team for the future. So beginning well before the NFL draft in April, Zealot members start to follow the projected rookie rankings, combine and pro-day workouts, mock drafts, and other draft-related news. Owners pour over every tidbit of rookie information and analysis they can find, hoping to separate the true studs from the hype, and to scout those prized late round sleepers that can make a great draft. But wise FF owners also know that a drafted rookie is an investment in the long-term. There aren’t that many first-year players who can step in and instantly start in the NFL, let alone as a starter on a FF roster, so it usually takes several years to find out how well a given draft has really worked out. However, it’s still fun to evaluate a draft, even if there’s only been one year of results to use. So with most eyes are looking ahead to the approaching 2007 draft, this article will may help whet the drafting appetite by instead looking back at the 2006 Zealots rookie draft, and seeing how the rookies performed. We’ll compare where players were drafted to their actual scoring during their first year in the league, and offer a few tidbits of information that alert owners can use to mine the free agent pools. 2006 Rookie Zealots ADP Collecting historical data on the 2006 rookie drafts held in all 48 Zealots leagues, we can put together a compilation of the Average Draft Position (ADP). The ADP list used for this article was updated and finalized from an compilation originally created by Ryan McCullough ("BoltMan") and Ray Mears ("TickRams"), whose initial work is greatly appreciated (Thanks, guys!). Having this ADP information, we can also gather the MFL results from 2006 to pull scoring data on all the rookies, and then combine the data to compare how the 2006 rookies did in Zealots FF scoring for their first year, versus where they where drafted. Note that the scoring data is based on Zealots scoring rules and is from all 17 regular weeks. With the combined ADP and scoring data, we can then look at the overall rookie results, ranked by ADP, which simulates the standard Zealots 6-round 12-team rookie draft. Below then, are the top 72 rookie picks from 2006, ranked on their Zealots-wide ADP, along with their ADP rank by position (QB, RB, WR, TE, PK, DL, LB, and DB); the number of drafts they were taken in (out of 48); the highest pick they were picked at; the lowest pick they were taken at; the Zealots FF points they scored in 2006; their overall scoring rank among all rookies; and finally their scoring rank by position:
Remember again that a rookie draft in a dynasty league is a vote for the long-haul, so it may take years for a given pick to really pan out. But it still looks like Zealots did a pretty good at drafting overall, based just on the first-year results. Only eight of the top 72 picks by ADP scored zero or less 2006 (QBs Clemens and Croyle actually had negative scores of -1.00 and -3.08). At least the vast majority of the picks were productive in 2006 at some level - 64 out of the highest 72 by ADP, for an average "hit rate" of 88.9%. 2006 Rookies by Scoring Results Now let's compare the table above to one rearranged by overall rookie scoring rank. Here's how the top 72 rookies scored in their first year:
Still not too bad - a lot of the early round names are still in the top, although there were some deep sleepers who hit gold, too (Marques Colston, Mike Bell, Richard Marshall, Dawan Landry). But out of the top 72 rookie scorers, there were 17 who weren't drafted in any of the 48 Zealots drafts. This lowers the "hit rate" to 55 out of 72, or 76.4%. Still, that's a solid C+, based only on the first year, remembering that most rookies can't really be considered "hits" or "misses" until several years of results are put together. Now for a more detailed look, we can break the rookies down by position, and then look at the top 12 in both ADP and scoring for comparison. Rookie Quarterbacks Let's start with the QBs. The following composite table first lists the top QBs, both by ADP rank and scoring rank:
The top half shows the top 12 rookie Quarterbacks ranked by ADP and the bottom half shows the rookie QBs ranked by how they actually scored in 2006. Note that only 10 rookie QBs had non-zero scoring, so there are only 10 rows in the lower half of the table. As we've said several times, rookie drafts are a gamble on the long-term, and especially, NFL QBs typically see very little playing time their first year. But overall, the 2006 QB class still performed surprisingly close to expectations. The three QBs whose ADP shows them as being picked in the first round (Leinart, Young, and Cutler) all ended up in the top four in scoring. The only thing most Zealots probably wouldn't have predicted was that Gradkowski would end up at #3. But even then, in the long term I think most expect Cutler to out-perform Gradkowski. Rookie Running Backs Now we'll look at the RBs. Running Backs typically get picked early and often in Zealots drafts. Twenty-four made the complete ADP listings, although the bottom six were only taken in one draft each. Here are the top twelve rookie RBs, ranked by ADP and then ranked by scoring during their rookie year:
One of the biggest rewards for where he was picked was Maurice Drew (now Jones-Drew) - he led all rookies in scoring with 254.89 points, and had an ADP of around the 12th or 13th pick. But going from a late first-round/early second-round pick to #1 in scoring really isn't that much of a jump - look instead at Mike Bell, who went un-drafted in 35 of the 48 Zealots drafts, and ended up at #5 in rookie RB scoring. But he also went un-drafted in the NFL, so Zealots can be forgiven a bit for overlooking him. Rookie Wide Receivers Next up are the rookie WRs:
Here, we can say that Santonio Holmes earned his #1 rookie WR ranking in ADP by finishing at #2 in scoring, but overall, it seems that the results were mixed. Five of the top-drafted WRs by ADP scored less than 20.00 pts in 2006, and five of the top-scoring WRs went un-drafted in over half of the Zealots drafts. The biggest surprise was surely Marques Colston,
who was taken in only three Zealots drafts, and ended up as the #1
WR. One the other hand, the biggest disappointment was Sinorice
Moss, whose injuries and 7.35 points fell far short of his 2nd round
ADP pick status. Rookie Tight Ends Now let's check out the TEs:
Only twelve TEs were taken in any Zealot draft, and most rookie TEs did little or no scoring in 2006. Vernon Davis, taken in the first round of every Zealots draft, started a bit slowly with only 44.40 pts, but that was still good enough to qualify as the #3 TE in scoring, and most NFL pundits still expect him to have a great career. The most unexpected result was probably TE Owen Daniels ending with 67.00 points as the #1 TE - he was drafted in only 4 Zealots drafts. Only One Kicker At Kicker, it's easy to compare the results:
Gostlowski was the only kicker taken in any Zealot draft, and he was the only rookie kicker to score any points in 2006. Rookie Defensive Linemen Now we move to the defense. Let's look at the rookie DL results:
Here we see a lot more variation than on the offensive side of the ball. For one thing, there was more diversity in the players selected: Only one DL was drafted in every Zealots draft in 2006 (Mario Williams), and only four who went in most drafts. But each of these four did show up in the top five DL scoring rookies from 2006, having them all turn out to be good picks for defensive linemen. But notice that five of the top scoring rookie DLs weren't even drafted in Zealots, while four of the ones that were drafted scored less than 10 points. This is even more interesting when the whole spreadsheet is looked at - there were 46 defensive linemen who scored as rookies in 2006. For comparison, there were 10 QBs, 22 RBs, 34 WRs, and 15 TEs who scored as rookies. In general, there is a lot of depth on the defensive side, and that this holds for rookie DLs too. Given this depth, and the fact that 23 of the 46 rookie DLs scored more than 10 points, it's somewhat surprising that Zealots managed to draft four who weren't part of that group of 23. Rookie Linebackers Here are the top LB rookies, both in ADP and in 2006 scoring:
This is another pretty good result: 6 of the top LBs in draft ADP were also in the top 12 in scoring, with both the highest two picks (Hawk and Sims) finishing in the top three in scoring results. But there were also some early disappointments: Greenway got injured and Jon Alston only scored 1.00 point. Also, the LBs were a little more attractive to the drafting Zealot teams than the DLs - 10 of the top 12 LBs in terms of ADP were taken in almost every league. On the scoring side, only two of the top 12 rookie LBs were un-drafted in all Zealots leagues, although Omar Gaither was taken in only one league (Z-32) at pick #66. As with the DLs, there is a lot of depth at the Linebacker position - 35 rookie LBs scored in 2006. This is a bit less than at DL, and about the same as the WRs -- but it still illustrates that the general "defensive depth" premise holds. Rookie Defensive Backs Lastly, let's review the DBs:
Well, again the results aren't horrible: Only two DBs were taken in every draft (Huff and Whitner), and they both ended up in the top 12 for scoring among rookies. Overall, six of the top DB picks also made the list for scoring. But on the other hand, half of the top six scoring rookie DBs in 2006 went un-drafted in all Zealots leagues. Also, the defensive depth idea holds at Defensive Back: There were fifty-three rookie DBs who scored in 2006 - the most of any position by far. In addition, the #12 rookie DB (Tye Hill) still had 67.70 points - the highest scoring #12 slot at any position. This illustrates that depth at rookie DB. Looking Ahead As we've said many times, a rookie draft is not like taking players in a re-draft league: It's an investment in the long-term. Basing the overall success of any draft only on the results from the first year is premature at best. But it is still interesting to see how the rookies drafted a year ago have fared in their first year in the league. In most cases, Zealots were pretty successful at predicting which rookies would be productive in 2006, and taking those players in our rookie drafts. But there are always surprises and disappointments, and there is still much more football to be played over the next few years to see how many of the draft investments will really pay off. Meanwhile, for the Zealots who know how to use the results, looking back at the rookies from last year can help prepare for this year's draft by identifying scoring trends and positional depth that may hold for all rookies year after year. Plus, it can also point to a couple of opportunities as the 2006 rookies get ready to start their sophomore year in the league:
Taking the time to look a little deeper to see which 2006 rookies are available, gathering whatever news you can about each player's specific NFL situation, and then picking up some of these free agent rookies may very well pay off in the long-term. If nothing else, it helps to pass the time as we wait for the next Zealots rookie draft in May. If you have any comments or questions, or if
you would like a copy of the complete ADP & Scoring MS Excel
spreadsheet used for this article, please contact the writing staff
at
writingstaff@zealotsfield.com. |
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